Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 19.711514 21.445329 23.362185 25.658821 28.363440 31.483493 35.410096
2024-10-20 16.913781 19.135073 21.767487 25.185672 29.617223 35.342312 43.627172
2024-10-27 15.651747 18.291884 21.612015 26.249537 32.851572 42.470089 58.908569
2024-11-03 14.251290 17.027733 20.666700 26.028054 34.236025 47.468729 73.954652
2024-11-10 13.258979 16.136787 20.043220 26.075416 35.953721 53.570275 95.694363
2024-11-17 12.502326 15.457612 19.593237 26.254357 37.876090 60.829519 128.319016
2024-11-24 11.863540 14.864212 19.174126 26.378601 39.702768 68.814003 177.641133
2024-12-01 11.236814 14.223832 18.601959 26.140495 40.772383 75.733984 244.330903
2024-12-08 10.755543 13.749627 18.225514 26.162819 42.354379 85.048550 376.837792
2024-12-15 10.277320 13.240574 17.740178 25.911888 43.288679 93.318399 608.724818
2024-12-22 9.856151 12.786173 17.298293 25.673117 44.191490 102.413790 1185.609824
2024-12-29 9.485504 12.383472 16.904338 25.467925 45.127849 112.764963 3897.166689
2025-01-05 9.150932 12.022304 16.560201 25.336086 46.290503 126.035121 NaN
2025-01-12 8.772321 11.572116 16.034470 24.783088 46.233908 134.006649 NaN
2025-01-19 8.677742 11.561594 16.253987 25.772121 50.758626 176.396047 NaN
2025-01-26 8.399472 11.241909 15.911318 25.535698 51.656482 198.681540 NaN
2025-02-02 8.182870 11.010022 15.706377 25.571146 53.447495 235.826869 NaN
2025-02-09 8.000696 10.824217 15.569544 25.739231 55.774145 292.386867 NaN
2025-02-16 7.824195 10.638496 15.419074 25.856946 58.014314 368.972006 NaN
2025-02-23 7.614407 10.387916 15.133084 25.625548 58.916789 437.974847 NaN
2025-03-02 7.449614 10.205101 14.961472 25.646581 60.852872 571.861967 NaN
2025-03-09 7.263007 9.977856 14.693017 25.403651 61.661327 707.626588 NaN
2025-03-16 7.088707 9.764732 14.439739 25.172574 62.477558 903.057281 NaN